OpenAI Weighs Delaying IPO to 2027 After SpaceX Stock Shock

OpenAI was set to go public this year, aiming for a trillion-dollar valuation. But after SpaceX shares plunged more than 30 percent within less than a month of their own debut, Sam Altman's company is starting to hesitate, and the market is already picking up on it through the performance of OpenAI's largest investor.

The issue isn't just timing, it's mainly price. Sam Altman's advisers have put him in front of a simple choice: either lower the expected valuation and go public this year, or stick to the trillion-dollar figure and wait until 2027. According to reporting by the New York Times, Altman considers any valuation below a trillion dollars, in his own words, a nonstarter.

SpaceX Casts a Shadow

The reason for caution is concrete. SpaceX went public on June 12 at a $2.77 trillion valuation, with shares that peaked at $225. Since then the price has fallen to about $153-156, roughly a third lower, and Elon Musk lost the trillionaire status he had gained on the wave of enthusiasm surrounding the listing.

For the banks advising OpenAI, this is hard evidence of how an AI-linked tech company performs in its first weeks on the market during a sharp tech-sector correction. Jefferies analysts, cited in reports on the deal, note that companies valued above $10 billion at their debut have historically returned an average of 26.5 percent in their first week of trading, but only 3.5 percent after a year, suggesting early enthusiasm rarely holds.

SoftBank Feels the Pain

The market has already felt the effects of the uncertainty surrounding OpenAI's IPO timeline. When reports emerged on June 26 that the debut might be pushed to 2027, SoftBank shares fell more than 12 percent in a single session, erasing about $38 billion in market capitalization. SoftBank has built a $65 billion stake in OpenAI, equal to roughly 13 percent of the company, making it the second-largest outside investor after Microsoft, which holds 27 percent.

The problem is that SoftBank financed part of that stake with a $40 billion bridge loan due for repayment by March 2027. Delaying OpenAI's IPO to late 2027 means the Japanese conglomerate could reach its debt deadline without the market event it was counting on to unlock liquidity. The firm also tried to secure a loan collateralized by its OpenAI shares, but banks struggled to value that collateral without a public market price for the company.

Anthropic Closes the Gap

While OpenAI hesitates, its chief rival is moving faster. Anthropic filed a confidential application to go public on June 1, a week before OpenAI, at a $965 billion valuation, briefly higher than OpenAI's private valuation. Dario Amodei's company still says it intends to debut in 2026, regardless of what its competitor decides.

The difference also shows up in the numbers. Anthropic is projected to turn profitable in 2029, a year ahead of OpenAI, with an annualized revenue run rate of around $47 billion according to statements the company made in May. OpenAI, despite higher revenue in absolute terms, is posting a deeper net loss and still has to convince the market it deserves a trillion-dollar price tag before it dares to go public.

What It Means for the Market

For investors and companies tied to the AI sector, OpenAI's situation shows that the AI stock rally is no longer unconditional. The market is now pricing enthusiasm for the technology separately from the risk tied to giant, still-unprofitable business models in which infrastructure spending runs into the hundreds of billions of dollars a year.

OpenAI's final decision is expected in the coming months and will hinge on how SpaceX shares perform and whether other major tech companies decide to go public later in 2026. If Altman does end up waiting until 2027, Anthropic could become the first of the two leading AI labs to be publicly traded, further shifting the balance of power in its relationships with investors and corporate customers.

Sources: Forbes (forbes.com), The Motley Fool (fool.com).